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February 28, 2006



This is wild - we're all watching Nepal and stuff pops off in the Philippines. The CPP is not in the position that the CPN(M) is in terms of the advanced stage of the people's war and the weakness and isolation of the leader of the old state. But the CPP is definitely a very significant force in the Philippines, and they can definitely play a role in helping bring down Arroyo (they've played that decisive role a couple times before -- with Marcos and with the movie star guy, I'm blanking on his name right now...)

One of the documents calls for a united front to create a new democratic government to replace Arroyo; I don't know if that's a real possibility or just something on paper. This could be interesting if Arroyo falls and Gyenendra falls in the same year, with communists playing decisive roles in both cases. Could make 2006 a year to remember!


Don't forget about the events in Thailand, leftspotter, with support for PM Thaksin eroding rapidly. There was a good article in the MRZine about it, which eludes me at the moment.

I hope this will not be denounced as revolutionary pessimism, but I think one needs to be cautious. The wave of instability and volatility around South and Southeast Asia is obviously something Washington is becoming alarmed with. Note the recent restoration of direct arms deals between the U.S. and Indonesia, as well as the recent trip of the president to Pakistan, India, and Afghanistan. Also note the recent evidence of continuing collaboration among the region's elites in interlocking financial scandals.

So while there is clearly a ripple effect each nation's crisis plays upon the next, it would be foolish to think that this has evaded the eye of the regional organizations (e.g., ASEAN) or its puppet masters in Washington. This area happens to be particularly soaked with CIAgents and local military intelligence forces who have collaborated in the past, in ways that make Operation Condor seem like child's play -- Gurkhas serving the Malaya Emergency, the 1965 Indonesian genocide essentially being instigated from bases and front-offices in Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines. I wouldn't doubt that such collaboration among the ASEAN and other regional governments is out of the question.

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